The latest numbers from the GFS computer model suggest that Oneida will struggle to climb far into the 70s tomorrow (reaching a high of 72), and will drop to 45 by daybreak on Sunday morning before warming to 78 Sunday afternoon.

It’s definitely another sign that fall is just around the corner (though temps are expected to quickly rebound, to the mid 80s by back-to-work Tuesday). But even though those morning temps will definitely be unusually cool if they verify (the normal morning low in Oneida this time of year is 57), they shouldn’t come even close to record territory.

According to National Weather Service records, the record low temperature in Oneida for Sept. 5 is 41 degrees. And it wasn’t set as long ago as you might think. Back in 1997, we dropped to 41 in Oneida on the morning of Sept. 5.

This is the time of year when nighttime temperatures begin to quickly drop off and cooler air from northern latitudes begins to have an easier time penetrating southern locales. It might surprise you to know that our earliest recorded freeze in Oneida is Sept. 22, and it’s been cold enough for light frost by Sept. 11 (on Sept. 11, 1976, Oneida fell to 36 degrees).

WARM WEATHER PREVAILS

A true touch of fall this weekend may do little to dissuade summer from making a few more dying lunges before it finally succumbs to the change of the seasons. Medium-range indicators continue to hint at warmer-than-average weather for the month of September as a whole. In fact, it’s looking as though warm weather might be the general rule for the entire autumn season. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center agrees, predicting above-average temperatures for much of the eastern U.S. (and, indeed, much of the nation) all the way through November. That doesn’t mean there won’t be brief bouts of cold weather, but we could see temperatures that routinely climb into the 80s well into October, and temps that routinely climb into the 70s all the way through November as a powerful (and still strengthening) La Nina pattern takes hold of global weather patterns.

With any luck, upper-level ridging over the Southeast will not become so powerful that it doesn’t allow cold-air intrusions to make it this far south. For now, the ridge looks to be somewhat weak over the next several weeks. In fact, another cold front appears on tap by the end of next weekend (though not as strong as this weekend’s cold front) to knock back the heat that’s going to build over the region in the days ahead. But it stands to reason that ridging will gradually increase as September transitions to October.

And while no one wants to see drought conditions develop, one could look at the developing global patterns and also conclude that dry weather will dominate in our region through at least the early part of autumn. Lower humidity means those warmer-than-average fall days will be more tolerable. In fact, most everyone besides deer hunters (who are sick enough to embrace nose-numbing cold weather) would agree that temps in the 30s/70s are ideal for October and November.

STORMS AND RUMORS OF STORMS

One thing that will have to be watched for as these global weather patterns develop is severe weather. It’s been several years since our region has dealt with bonafide severe weather threats in the fall, but autumn is the Southeast’s secondary severe weather season for a reason. As the La Nina-typical pattern of warmth in the Southeast and cold in the Northwest takes hold, a perfect breeding ground for severe weather will develop on the periphery of the warmer air region as the cooler air begins to make its seasonal dives down through the Rockies and the Plains towards the Mississippi and Ohio river valleys.