I’m still hesitant to go there after the Christmas snow threat flopped so badly, but as has been mentioned a couple of times now in the past few days, there is a lot of potential for a Southeast snowstorm next week, and a lot of indicators that such a storm will try to develop.

As I mentioned earlier this week, you won’t hear much chatter about it because the GFS computer model isn’t showing it. But the 0z and 6z runs of the GFS this morning have shown it—albeit not too much of a threat for our area—so the chatter is likely to begin over the next day or two if those trends hold.

The time frame we’re looking at is Jan. 7-8. The situation we’re looking at is a low pressure system pushing through the Deep South, right along the Gulf of Mexico, with cold air in place across much of the region. It’s way too far out to try to nail down location and details, but the important thing is that most of the notable global models—including the GFS and the ECMWF that are so heavily relied upon—have a storm developing. My untrained opinion has been and remains that if this storm develops, it may end up being a Deep South snowstorm that misses Tennessee, for the most part. The GFS is showing exactly that, with the 0z run showing 2-3″ of snow for us and the 6z run showing virtually nothing. But, my untrained opinion is also that things are improving that could allow this storm to track a little further to the north.

The most important thing as we look at this storm seven days in advance is that it is an entirely plausible scenario. Many times, winter storms show up on the long-range models a week or more in advance and they really don’t look plausible. This one does. The 0z GFS in particular shows the Pacific North American (PNA) ridge coming alive, with blocking all the way up the coast to Alaska. That, in turn would allow a piece of energy to slide down the Rockies to Texas, where it would begin to take on its shape as a bonafide storm, then tap Gulf moisture and overrun colder air that is in place. That’s a classic winter storm setup for the Southeastern U.S.

As for location, past runs of the GFS have been showing us very cold throughout the extended period. The reality is that it probably won’t snow in East Tennessee if we’re as cold as the GFS has been depicting. Not that it can’t, but it is unusual. But what the GFS is beginning to show now is the various upper atmosphere features to our north beginning to relax a little, allowing the trough that is going to move into place this weekend and deliver us cold temperatures for the next several days to also relax, and that is what could open the door for this storm to travel further north than is currently being depicted and become East Tennessee’s first significant snowstorm of the 2009-2010 winter season.

Lots of ifs and buts in there…the models may very well have the proper placement and strength of this system already locked down; it may impact areas to our south and not impact us at all. Or the trough may strengthen enough to push the thing all the way into the Gulf of Mexico. Or it may not develop at all…or any number of other things could happen. We are talking winter weather in the Southeast, after all. But it will be interesting to watch and see if it all comes together.

A mix of rain and sleet (but mostly sleet) has been falling in the Oneida area for the past couple of hours. The ground is turning white in some areas with a quarter-inch or so of slushy accumulation. Oddly enough, the National Weather Service at Morristown had sleet in the forecast tonight, but opted to remove the mention of sleet and go with rain only when it updated its forecast about an hour ago.

Meanwhile, the NWS at Nashville has issued a special weather statement highlighting slick roads across part of the Plateau:

…SLICK ROADWAYS ALONG PLATEAU THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT…

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW HAS STARTED TO FALL ACROSS THE NORTH
END OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU FROM COOKEVILLE EAST TO CROSSVILLE…
AND NORTH TO JAMESTOWN. ROAD SURFACES ARE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
FREEZING AND ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL STICK TO THE
ROADWAYS MAKING THEM SLICK FOR MOTORISTS. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY
TRUE ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO DRIVE WITH
CAUTION. CONDITONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS…
AS WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE INTO THE AREA.

Winds are still out of the south and breezy at times, so temperatures (currently hovering at 34 degrees) should improve as the night progresses.

Models continue to indicate a very cold next couple of weeks, with most of East Tennessee perhaps staying below freezing for at least a week beginning Friday morning.

Although the National Weather Service’s forecast isn’t showing temperatures too dramatically cold—with highs generally in the low 30s from Friday through Wednesday of next week. But it wouldn’t be too surprising to see the NWS downgrade those temperatures as we move forward. Today’s runs of the GFS computer model weren’t as cold as yesterday’s runs, and as has already been pointed out, that model has consistently overblown future cold air for the past 2-3 weeks. But we’ll have to wait for tonight’s run to see if the warmer run earlier today was a trend or a fluke, and in the meantime, today’s GFS was still downright cold for the next several days. Raw data from the GFS suggests highs below freezing for us all the way through next week, and in the mid 20s most days. Even the GFS’s Model Output Statistics (MOS), which are notorious for being too warm, show us below freezing through Wednesday with the exception of a few hours Sunday afternoon. So the models aren’t showing record cold temps or even dramatically cold temps…the temps currently being indicated by the GFS model wouldn’t be nearly as cold as our coldest stretch of temps last winter (three nights of low temps between -1 and 1), but the prolonged period of cold temps is quite unusual, even for East Tennessee in January.

It has become clear that all that the blocking features over Canada that will help deliver these cold temps to us will help suppress the storm track around here, keeping us mostly dry. But there are still indications that a clipper system might impact us Sunday night into Monday. The NWS isn’t currently forecasting it, probably because it isn’t very likely that it develops. But the system is on the table, so that’s something to keep an eye on for some possible light snow at the end of the weekend. And, there are still indications that a major storm could develop later next week. All things considered, it’s probably most likely that such a storm would miss us to the south, even if it does develop, but it certainly is something to keep an eye on.

There is growing speculation that former Tennessee defensive coordinator John Chavis will wind up in Athens as the Bulldogs’ defensive coordinator within the next few weeks.

While Chavis reportedly denied the rumors to players as recently as yesterday, he side-stepped the question during today’s pre-Capital One Bowl press conference, which is as good as admitting interest:

Chavis was asked two different times Wednesday at a Capital One Bowl press conference about his interest in the Georgia job and/or whether or not he expected to be at LSU next year.

Both times, he essentially gave a lengthy no comment and certainly did nothing to distance himself from the Georgia job.

“I’ll be happy to talk about our players and about this bowl game,” Chavis said. “Beyond that, I really want to leave it like it is.”

Most people with more than a passing interest in the coaching vacancy at Georgia believe Chavis will wind up in Athens. The new gig would represent a 30% pay increase, and would bring Chavis closer to his family, which still live just outside Knoxville.

That isn’t good news for Tennessee. If Chavis leaves, Ed Orgeron is likely to become the top candidate to replace him at LSU. Orgeron is from Louisiana, and his family did not follow him to Tennessee after he left the New Orleans Saints to join Lane Kiffin’s staff. Some reports indicate that Les Miles is prepared to offer Chavis upwards of $1 million per year to join his staff, which would be double what Chavis made in Baton Rouge.

On the flip side of that, some Tennessee fans feel that a Chavis hire at Georgia would ultimately result in Rodney Garner landing in Knoxville. Garner is recognized as one of the top recruiters in the SEC and was responsible for luring some high-profile high school players out of Georgia and to Tennessee when he was on Phillip Fulmer’s staff in the mid ’90s. Georgia later hired Garner away. Kiffin made a push for Garner after arriving in Knoxville last winter, but Garner opted to stay in Athens. Sources always contended that Chavis and Garner did not mesh well when they were on staff together at Tennessee, which leads to much of the speculation that Garner would come to Knoxville if The Chief winds up at Georgia. Also, there were rumors earlier this month that Garner was going to resign his post at Georgia…though that didn’t happen at the time.

Another year-end post…My favorite photos taken during the course of the year.

A bicyclist in the Big South Fork NRRA pushes his bike beneath an icy rock overhang as single-digit temperatures put the northern Cumberland Plateau in the deep freeze on Jan. 17.

Read more…

Scott Countians will look back on 2009 as a year of economic struggles: Rising unemployment that was at one point the state’s highest. Struggling factories and businesses. The Town of Oneida forced to borrow money to meet its debt obligations. We’ll remember it as a year that brought interesting weather—from icy wonderlands to tornadoes to floods. We’ll remember it as a year that saw several of our neighbors lose their lives in tragic accidents. A year of great debate over ATVs. And a year of The Negotiation: St. Mary’s vs. Scott County…a battle that St. Mary’s would ultimately win.

There were very few major stories on the local scene in 2009, and that’s good. Major stories, the kind that leave a lasting impression, are often bad news. That isn’t to say we didn’t have our share of bad news in 2009. Isn’t the fact that nearly one in five of us were unemployed bad enough? Of course, not all of it was bad; some of it was good. As I think back to 2009, these are the stories that I’ll remember…

January began with news that our unemployment rate in Scott County had climbed to 2nd-highest in the state. That bit of bad news was partially off-set by some good news: The world’s largest log home manufacturer was resuming operations. The first train derailment in a generation on the former Tennessee Railroad halted rail traffic into the Cumberland Mountain coal fields. We experienced our coldest temperatures in a decade—several nights of temps at or slightly below zero, freezing waterfalls (right) and even the free-flowing Big South Fork of the Cumberland River. The Board of Education implored County Commission to set up to the plate and fund construction of school projects at Burchfield and Robbins. And we paid our last respects to Oneida’s oldest surviving mayor: Robert Carson, 100.

February brought news that Scott County’s unemployment rate had climbed above 15% for the first time since the early 1990s. A Helenwood woman died in a tragic house fire near Galloway Motel, Scott County’s 2nd fire-related fatality in two years. A wind storm caused significant damage around the county. The search continued for Jean Johnson, the missing-and-presumed-murdered Ditney Trail woman. And Burchfield Elementary School received a prestigious national award at a Title I conference in San Antonio.

March brought a bombshell from Mercy Health Partners: Give St. Mary’s a 15-year lease of the local hospital for free, or the health care firm was pulling out. Debate—sometimes tense—followed, but County Commission eventually agreed, by a 9-5 vote, to St. Mary’s ultimatum. Doug Whisnant, the Ditney Trail man accused of murdering Jean Johnson, his ex-wife, was sentenced to 25 years in prison on federal gun charges. And for the 2nd time in as many years, a black bear was killed in a collision with a car on U.S. Hwy. 27 near Oneida…a sign that the bears continue to move their core areas closer to civilized areas.

In April, Joshua Botts, a 25-year-old Annadale man, was killed in an industrial accident at Great Dane Trailers in Huntsville. The Oneida Special School District presented its own plans for school improvements—$5.8 million worth—to County Commission. We said goodbye to philanthropist and school board member Vivian Smith, 65, who lost a long battle with cancer only days before the American Cancer Society Relay For Life event that she helped turn into one of the state’s best. And Scott County bucked a statewide trend when Republicans took over the majority on the local Election Commission without trying to institute partisan personnel changes.

May began with flash-flooding that forced evacuations and required the rescue of some residents in low-lying areas. Days later, an EF2 tornado—the strongest locally since the April 3, 1974, tornadic outbreak—touched down in the Fairview community, leaving behind plenty of damage but sparing lives. A Knoxville man lost his life when his canoe capsized at the Angel Falls rapid on the Big South Fork, and two more Knoxville men were fortunate to escape with no injuries after surviving an overnight ordeal while on a canoe trip further upstream at Clear Fork.

In June, Robbins school board member Bradford Zachary was arrested on DUI charges. Hundreds turned out for an annual fishing contest at Oneida City Park, sponsored by the city, Walmart and TWRA. Donnie Ellis, 46, a popular Oneida resident, was killed in a horrific head-on collision with a Coca-Cola tractor-trailer on Baker Highway. An announcement by Sheriff Anthony Lay that state laws regarding the use of ATVs on public roads would begin to be strictly enforced drew a passionate response from both sides of the ATV divide, with the Town of Huntsville declaring that citizens were free to ride ATVs—meeting certain requirements—on its streets. A University of Tennessee advisory service later opined that Huntsville’s ordinance was unlawful. Finally, it came to light that former Sheriff’s Department Chief Detective Donnie Anderson, fired after coming under suspicion of filing a false report against a local woman, had been receiving unemployment benefits, paid to the state by Scott County.

More peaceful times were ahead for July, as firefighters in Huntsville made plans for the annual Firemen’s Fourth celebration. The great ATV debate continued, this time in county government. Thirty-five people were arrested in a major drug sting. It was revealed that coal ash from TVA’s Kingston mishap might wind up in the Bear Creek landfill. And County Commission decided it was time to build some schools.

The Pedouins passed through Oneida in August—bound for Alaska—in August. A Morgan County man was apprehended after allegedly shooting his pregnant ex-girlfriend, a 25-year-old Robbins woman, in the face. He was later “bound over” to a grand jury and eventually indicted on attempted first degree murder charges.

In September, Scott County’s jobless rate became the state’s highest. Ernest Green, a 19-year-old Pine Hill man, was killed in an unusual traffic accident in West Oneida. It was revealed that a strange murder investigation north of Mason-Dixon had ties to Oneida. And Oneida police officer Jason Pike was vindicated of the civil charges lodged against him by a Winfield woman who had been arrested for allegedly shooting a gun in Pike’s mother’s home.

October brought former Tennessee football coach Phillip Fulmer to town. Andrew Ellis, driver of the vehicle in which Ernest Green was killed, was indicted on felony charges in connection with his friend’s death. David Jones, a Helenwood man, was sentenced to 16 years for the death of his wife. And THP Trooper Greg Roberts, a Huntsville resident, nabbed a prison escapee in Knoxville.

Barry Wilmore, a NASA astronaut with Scott County ties, piloted the space shuttle Atlantis to the International Space Station in November. Huntsville Mayor George W. Potter survived a heart attack. A pair of Scott County residents were killed in traffic accidents. And a meth lab bust in Huntsville was described by law enforcement as the largest meth lab in Scott County’s history.

December found Scott County’s unemployment rate declining somewhat.  An Oneida physician accused of misconduct had his license suspended in Kentucky (as well as Tennessee). And Charles Ray Harvey, the Robbins man convicted of killing his estranged son-in-law and dumping his body in New River, was denied a new trial.

Urban Meyer’s wife, Shelley, speaks on why football losses—such as the loss to Alabama in the SEC Championship Game that landed him in the hospital—are so taxing on her husband:

“The game ends and I’m like, ‘Oh, I know what it’s going to be.’ And so do my kids: ‘Oh, great, dad’s going to be in a terrible mood.’ He sits alone, and the worst thing is if we have people over. Because we have people every week for games and the worst part is if we lose, what do you do with your company? They don’t want to sit around and cry.

“And you can’t ask them to leave — even though we all want to leave. He just wants to sit all by himself. He goes in the den, he doesn’t want to talk to anybody, doesn’t want to see anybody. He usually puts the TV on and he usually just wants me to come sit with him. He can’t sleep that night. Terrible, terrible.”

Heck, that isn’t so bad. That sounds like me after a Tennessee loss . . . and I’m just a fan.

Just to continue on this theme of colder weather that is headed in our direction:

Today’s 12z run of the GFS (out at lunch time, after this morning’s posts about the cold weather) keeps the idea alive for cold air. Even though the model’s output statistics (MOS) shows us getting to 33 degrees Sunday, the actual model data is colder than that. If the latest GFS run is correct, we wouldn’t get out of the 20s through the weekend here in Oneida, dropping through the 20s Friday afternoon, getting to only 26 on Saturday afternoon and to just 24 Sunday afternoon. Then on Monday and Tuesday, we would struggle to even get out of the teens.

It remains to be seen whether we’re actually that cold (I’d give the GFS a couple more days to work with newer data . . . after all, it is the GFS and it hasn’t exactly had a stellar performance here lately), but no matter how you shake it, it appears a turn to cold weather is definitely in store as we start the new year.

Urban Meyer is catching his fair share of flack after a bizarre weekend that began with him stepping down as Florida’s head football coach and ended with him deciding to take a leave of absence that will probably have him back on the sideline in time for the 2010 season.

ESPN’s Pat Forde thinks Meyer is a drama queen:

Who makes a decision as momentous as a resignation at the peak of a man’s profession so rashly that he changes his mind the next morning … because he liked what he saw at practice?

Who would upstage his school’s BCS bowl game with a resignation announcement? And then an un-resignation announcement? Why not wait until Jan. 2 for all of that?

This Fort Myers, Fla., columnist thinks he’s the “most selfish guy in the world”:

It was Saturday night when Meyer opened up to New York Times reporter Pete Thamel, telling him this about quitting because of heart issues so serious that it sent him to the hospital and doctors on multiple occasions: “I saw it as a sign from God that this was the right thing to do. … God was telling me I have to slow down and stop it.”

Just 24 hours later, Meyer evidently decided God didn’t know what he was talking about.

College Football News thinks its Kiffin’s fault:

And another thing, Mr. Meyer: Lane Kiffin really got to you, didn’t he? It was Kiffin who sucked you into an impossible expectations game which set a terrible tone and tenor for the whole season. It was Kiffin who made you (and equally gullible/dumb Florida fans) get angry at ugly wins, which are never anything to apologize for. It was Kiffin who made you angry and testy. It was Kiffin who got under your skin. It was Kiffin who made you feel that going 12-1 wasn’t acceptable. It was Kiffin who baited you into sinking to a lower common denominator (much as Rick Neuheisel sucked Pete Carroll into doing the same thing). And it was Kiffin who – while having accomplished precious little at this point in his coaching career – made you act and feel like the smaller guy in the room, even when you had the big-boy results to show for your labors.

Tony Basilio’s X-man thinks recruits were starting to ask questions about Meyer’s health and Meyer was going to play ‘em off until after National Signing Day until the info fell into the wrong hands:

My opinion is someone was going to run with the information and in an attempt to get out in front of the situation, the Florida Administration went public with the resignation. When they saw the recruiting class start to fizzle, Meyer et al went into full tilt damage control. That is my theory and I’m sticking with it.

Oh, and did Meyer commit an NCAA recruiting violation?

Meyer said he called many recruits Saturday night to deliver the news and encouraged them to stick with their commitments to Florida.

“I told them that Florida is still the best place to be,” he said. “It’ the best school in the country. I want to help keep this program on top. I love Gainesville. I want to help the University of Florida in any way I can.”

We’re in a recruiting dead period (through the bowl season), and coaches supposedly are not allowed to contact recruits during this dead period.

I mentioned this morning that it’s looking likely that much of the region will be in the freezer by this time next week. In weather hobbyist circles, this upcoming cold snap is drawing a lot of comparisons to the cold snap in late January of 1985. I am NOT, by any means, suggesting that I think it’s going to get this cold next week, or even close to it. But, just for the sake of entertainment, here’s a flashback to an Independent Herald article from Jan. 24, 1985:

-22° temperatures bring Scott County to standstill
By PAUL ROY, Editor

The season’s first major snowstorm blanketed Scott County with 4-6 inches Saturday night, but what followed on its heels was what were probably the coldest temperatures seen here in modern times.

Sunday night, Jan. 20, will probably go down as the coldest winter night in recorded history for Scott County, although many people seem to recall a low of 28 below zero in the 1950s.

The mercury dipped to 13 below on Saturday night, then went to as low as an unofficial 26 below in many areas of the county on Sunday night.

The Colditz brothers (Arnold and Rudy), this area’s official weather observers, recorded 22 below zero Sunday night at their farm west of Oneida. The official snowfall recorded over the weekend was six inches.

All area schools, several local factories and other businesses did not open on Monday due to the frigid weather, while area television and radio stations issued warnings urging people to remain indoors, as well as offering advice about how to keep warm both inside and outside.

Knoxville, Tennessee’s -24 degrees recorded Sunday night not only went down as the coldest temperature there since records started in the late 1800s, but had the dubious distinction of being the coldest spot in the nation.

One Knoxville television station, faced with a long list of cancellations, decided it would broadcast what was open instead of what was closed. The list was considerably shorter.

Scott County awoke Monday to temperatures which averaged 20 degrees below zero. Many residents were stranded in their homes when efforts to start their cars failed due to frozen fuel lines and batteries.

Power outages were reported throughout the county Sunday night, the most severe of which occurred in the eastern portion of the county where some subscribers to electric service from Plateau Electric Cooperative reported no electricity for three to four hours.

In Oneida, a power outage in portions of the town prompted city officials to begin making preparations to house elderly residents at City Hall. Fortunately, the power came back on before steps were taken to shuttle people to City Hall.

Mayor Denzil Pennington, who was coordinating the efforts to establish an emergency shelter at the Municipal Services Building, extended his appreciation to the officials of the Bethlehem Baptist Church and Oneida Independent School System, both of which had buses ready and waiting to shuttle people to City Hall.

* * *

Again, I’m not suggesting we’ll get anywhere close to this cold in the days ahead . . . I don’t, and there’s been nothing to suggest we will. 1985 was a brutal winter in more ways than one, with local schools closed almost a month and snowfall after snowfall recorded during that span of January-February. It’s likely to be a long time before such a winter repeats itself in this area.