Ida is entering the Gulf of Mexico this afternoon as a weak, category 1 hurricane. She’s expected to track quickly northward through the Gulf, making landfall by Tuesday morning. A hurricane watch is out from New Orleans to Mobile, with coastal flood warnings along the same. Landfall is currently predicted by the National Hurricane Center just east of Mobile. The NHC then expects Ida to make a quick 90-degree turn, cross the Florida panhandle, and re-enter the Atlantic as a tropical depression by late Wednesday.

As Ida surges north, there is the potential for heavy rain, wind and flooding for parts of the Southeast. The question is where. The models have been split over the past couple of days, with the NAM projecting some heavy rain for Tennessee and the GFS and ECMWF keeping the rain to our south.

However, the latest trend of the GFS model has been to bring this storm further north than the NHC’s projection, all the way to Atlanta. If that’s true, Tennessee could be in for some heavy rain and wind. Here’s what the GFS suggests, precipitation-wise:

And this is what the NAM model is projecting:

The NWS’s Hydrometeorological Prediction Center says it isn’t going to happen. Their 5-day precipitation total:

The NWS’s official forecast is following the HPC guidance, forecasting Ida’s rains to remain south of us. Currently, the NWS is forecasting only a 30% chance of rain Tuesday.

What happens here, weather-wise, next week will be determined by exactly how strong this hurricane is by the time it makes landfall, and how far north it travels before beginning its trek eastward. It’s currently a minimal hurricane, but is strengthening. The NHC forecasts it to strengthen to a cat2 storm before weakening back to cat1 before making landfall. In a worst-case scenario, Tennessee could see several inches of rain and potentially damaging winds. In a best-case scenario, the NWS’s forecast is accurate. Time will tell.

WAITIN’ ON WINTER: The GFS model continues to project a cool-down next week, with lows generally in the 30s and highs generally in the 50s to near 60. But no significantly cold weather in the South is projected by the GFS over the next couple of weeks. I still like the idea of cold weather returning by Thanksgiving or thereabouts. The Artic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation are both very positive right now. Both are modeled to go negative in the days ahead, but by the middle of the month, signs are very mixed on what will happen. So it’s a muddled picture on what our weather will be like in late November and early December.