Isn’t it weird how there are a few artists in every musical genre who are around for years, yet never really have many hits?

Neal McCoy—the former opening act of country legend Charlie Pride—is one of those.

This November will rank the 20th anniversary of his debut record, 1990’s At This Moment. During that span of time, which has witnessed the rejuvenation of the country/western genre, McCoy has had just seven Top 10 hits, and only two No. 1 singles.

McCoy’s third studio album, No Doubt About It, was released 16 years ago next week and propelled him to the height of his career…though no one realized it at the time. The first two singles from the album, the title track and “Wink,” both went to No. 1 on the charts. That set the stage for his next two albums—You Gotta Love That in 1995 and a self-titled project in 1996—to reach the Top 10 in genre popularity. And two singles from each record reached the Top 5 on the charts.

But McCoy never was able to recreate the radio success he had with No Doubt About It. He had several Top 40 singles over the next several years, but none of them went higher than No. 22. By  2005, he had gone four years without a Top 40 single and launched his own label (903 Music). Under that vanity label, he released another album, from which he had another Top 10 hit, Billy Had His Beer Goggles On.

If things appeared headed in the right direction with that hit, things came crashing back to earth when three straight singles failed to chart. The notable other artist on McCoy’s label—Darryl Worley—never saw his career take off, and the label eventually filed for bankruptcy.

McCoy still continues to tour—traveling more than 200 days a year—and does significant charity work. But his voice is heard less and less these days on country radio, which isn’t kind to the hits of yesteryear.

That’s too bad. It was at the time his radio success had begun to flail that I believe McCoy did his best work. 1999’s Life of the Party was one of the rare studio albums that doesn’t have a bad song on it. “I Was” and “Girls of Summer” were the only two singles from the album, each of them barely cracking the Top 40. Both were good songs, but couldn’t compare with “The Strongest Man In The World,” which I still think is one of the better country tunes to come along over the past 15 or 20 years. Throw in some love ballads (”Completely” and “Ain’t Nothing Like It”), a former No. 1 hit by Nat King Cole (”Straighten Up and Fly Right), and a couple of fun numbers like the title track and “New Old Songs,” and Life of the Party was a very good album. I thought it was the best country album of the year. Not surprisingly, very few agreed with me, and the record peaked at only No. 24 on the country charts.

Neal McCoy may not be heard much on the radio these days, but he continues to dedicate plenty of time for charity, whether it’s playing for troops overseas or raising millions of dollars through his Angel Network to fund medical treatments for children with terminal illnesses. If there’s any justice in the country music industry, McCoy will be able to find radio success again on a future project. At age 51, the window of opportunity is on the verge of closing, but McCoy is simply too talented to disappear from the airwaves forever.

With a half-foot of snow on the ground this morning, could another storm be just around the corner?

Temperatures will quickly moderate towards freezing today to help with clearing roads, and milder temps through the upcoming week will certainly help dispatch of this snow fall, but by the time the remnants of this storm are gone, another storm could be lurking…if some models are right.

The GFS and some other global models have sporadically shown another storm developing next Friday or Saturday. There isn’t nearly as much agreement between models or between runs as there was at this time last week, when serious talk began about the storm that just passed. But it’s worth keeping an eye on. Right now, the NWS is forecasting chances of snow showers Friday and Saturday, though high temps are shown as reaching 40 degrees.

The Artic Oscillation (AO) is trending further into negative territory and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is forecast to stay slightly negative for the next few days, which bodes well for winter weather chances in the Southeast.

Further out, both the AO and NAO are being modeled by some global models to go positive by the middle of the month. Could some spring-like temps be just around the corner?

Some areas of Tennessee are waking up this morning to what was expected from last night’s winter storm, while others are waking up to the forecast bust that is so typical in this part of the country each winter.

*In Scott County, 6″ was received just west of Oneida. This is just inside the lower end of accumulation forecasts, and seems to be the general number being reported across the Upper Cumberlands region, from Macon County to the Plateau.

*Most locations south of I-40 received several inches of snow before transitioning to freezing rain or just plain rain overnight. In Dresden (south of Nashville), 7″ was reported. In Chattanooga, reports of 3-5″ were numerous. In Jackson, 4″ was reported. In west Nashville, nearly 6″ was reported.

*Some areas north of I-40 saw a transition away from snow as well. At 11 p.m. last night, freezing rain or sleet was being reported as far north as Oliver Springs and Cookeville.

*The snow hounds in the Knoxville market may be the most disappointed by this storm. This morning, Knoxville is reporting 33 degrees and rain. Just north of Knoxville, in Corryton, it was reported that 5″ of snow was received before a transition to rain late last night. But in Sevier County, a report indicates less than 2″ before a change to rain.

The National Weather Service will have some official numbers later today.

The big story was warm air working into the atmosphere. Any time you’re dealing with a system that is pulling in Gulf moisture, warm air advection could prove to be a forecast bust. And that’s certainly the case in some areas of Tennessee this morning.

But, all in all, it was certainly the statewide, high-impact winter storm that was predicted. Travel in much of the state will continue to be seriously hampered through today. Probably no one area saw their highest snow total since 1988 (though Chattanooga did see their highest snow total since the 1993 blizzard), but when considering the statewide impact, it may well have been the highest impact winter storm since ‘88…though the full scope of this storm probably isn’t known yet. In Scott County, it was the biggest snow total since 2005, when we received 6″. But that snow didn’t accumulate on roadways, meaning this one will likely be remembered for much longer than the ‘05 snow. This is the highest impact winter storm here since 1998. In parts of the mid-state, it was the biggest snow since 2003.

Even in areas where the warm air caused a changeover, the freezing rain caused some serious issues. In Memphis, close to 25,000 customers were without power at the height of the storm last night. In southern Middle Tennessee, several thousand additional homes were without power. In Rhea County here in southern East Tennessee, it has been said that cleanup of downed trees and limbs will take days.

Snow has finally begun to fall in earnest on the northern Cumberland Plateau, as it was expected to do tonight. After light snow all afternoon failed to accumulate more than an inch, there are a couple of inches in Oneida proper, with as much as 4″ in some areas of Scott County surrounding Oneida. Roads are treacherous, including state roads. TDOT salt trucks are busy, but mother nature is currently outworking the TDOT crews. Even making several passes an hour on the 4-Lane section of U.S. 27 in Oneida, the salt trucks cannot keep the roads clear.

Accidents seem to be relatively few, considering the road conditions. It appears most folks are wisely staying indoors. I took a trip around town, and most businesses that were still open at 9 p.m. were in the process of closing, including restaurants. Walmart was the only business (besides the usual convenience stores) still open at 10 p.m., and was in the process of sending some employees home early.

Meanwhile, warm air is working its way into the mid-layers of the atmosphere across most of the state, especially from I-40 southward. That was somewhat expected, but what wasn’t expected was that warm air is also mixing down to the surfaces, changing some areas to plain rain with temperatures above 32 degrees. In just about every sense, the warm air advection is stronger than was expected, as temperatures are pushing into the upper 30s in some areas along Tennessee’s southern border. In Chattanooga, where a winter weather advisory was upgraded to a winter storm warning earlier after more than 3″ of snow unexpectedly fell, the temperature was being reported at 34 degrees at 10 p.m.  To illustrate the sneakiness of this over-performing warm air advection (which, as was pointed out here several times leading up to this storm, is one of the things that can be missed and can lead to forecast busts), Huntsville, Ala., just south of the Tennessee border, was forecast to rise to be in the low 30s tonight, and they’ve risen to 40 degrees. A winter storm warning there has been canceled.

In the U.S. 27 corridor, heavy freezing rain has been reported as far north as Oliver Springs. That means the warmer air is also pushing further north than was expected.

Further west, locations that had picked up more than a half foot of snow earlier today are seeing freezing rain and sleet eat into those snow accumulations, as what started as all snow is turning into one big sloppy, wintry mess as warm air advection rides in from the Gulf of Mexico. Colder air from the north will eventually win out over the warmer air, but it remains to be seen just how far north that influx of warm air will come. If it comes this far north, that obviously will mean a big difference in what happens the rest of tonight. It isn’t expected to do so, but the fact that above-freezing temps have already surged north of I-40 in the mid-levels of the atmosphere has certainly raised the price of poker…even Cookeville is reporting a transition from snow to sleet, meaning the warmer air has worked its way all the way to the base of the Plateau.

Some informal reports of accumulation from around the state include 4″ in Nashville proper, 3.5″ in west Nashville, 5″ in Franklin, 5″ in Murfreesboro (but that area has since changed to sleet), 7″ in Dickson County (since changed to freezing rain), 3″ in Red Boiling Springs (Macon County), 6″ in Jackson, and nearly 4″ here in West Oneida.

With ice accumulating in parts of the mid-state where warmer air at the mid-level has changed snow to rain but surface temps have remained below freezing, power outages have been reported in several areas. In Memphis, more than 15,000 customers are reported to be without power.

Meanwhile, the NWS in Louisville continues to predict up to 6-10″, with locally higher amounts, for its counties along the Tennessee-Kentucky border. All other NWS offices appear to be sticking firm to their forecasts as well, as moisture continues to stream into the area.

At 11 p.m., snowfall rates have slackened on the northern Plateau, but if the precip shield holds together, another round of heavy snow is on the way from the mid-state in a couple of hours. Those 10-12″ totals still seem unattainable, but it’s a lot easier to say at the moment that we’ll meet expectations with this storm, which were 6-12″, according to the NWS. Of course, if that warmer air works its way this far north, that changes things.

So here’s where we stand, at 11 p.m.: This is indeed the statewide, blockbuster winter storm that is so rare these days. It’s too soon to say whether it’s the biggest winter storm (for the state as a whole) since 1988, as we thought it might be (remember, the ‘93 blizzard didn’t seriously impact areas from Nashville west), and it’s still a little too soon to say that it’s going to be our biggest winter storm on the northern Plateau since 1998, though it does appear likely.

*In Memphis: Snow earlier, followed by freezing rain. More than 15,000 customers are without power.

*In Nashville: Snow continues to fall, with 3-6″ reported and roads hazardous.

*In the mid-state: Areas south of I-40 receiving freezing rain on top of snow, with power outages reported in some areas. Areas north of I-40 receiving heavy snow, with up to 4″ accumulated thus far.

* In Chattanooga: Several inches of snow earlier, now transitioned to a wintry mix. Roads are reported treacherous, including interstates.

* In Knoxville: Heavy snow being reported, with bad road conditions.

It goes without saying that travel is pretty much at a standstill from Memphis to the Tri-Cities this evening.

UPDATE: As the Gulf low continues to pull east, the door is being slammed on warm air advection for areas further to our west, and temperatures are reported to be dropping several degrees in a short period of time. It looks like any change to sleet or freezing rain for I-40 north might be short lived.

The highest totals from the ongoing winter storm thus far have been, ironically, in the southern tier of the state…where the least amounts were expected. Reports range from almost 5 inches just outside Chattanooga stretching westward to Marshall County, and as much as 7 inches southwest of Nashville, in the Hohenwald area.

Here on the northern Plateau, accumulations are only about an inch so far.

To the south, this storm will exceed expectations. To the north, the various offices of the NWS—in Nashville, Morristown and Jackson, Ky.—are sticking to their guns on accumulation projections, but it’s going to take much more development than currently seems likely as the upper level low powering this system draws nearer to the area. While additional accumulations—by far, the bulk of the accumulation—will occur tonight, it seems very unlikely to this amateur that we’ll see those 8-10″ totals here on the northern Plateau.

11:17 a.m. The NWS in Nashville opines: “OLD MAN WINTER IS NOT PLAYING AROUND THIS GO ROUND.”

11:08 a.m. It isn’t worth much, but the 12z model runs are in. GFS is drier, showing about 0.5″ of precipitation for the general northern Plateau area. The NAM is wetter, again, with about 1.25″ of precip in liquid form.

11:05 a.m. Keep an eye on TDOT’s website for cameras showing road conditions in major cities across the state. Here’s a screen shot from I-240 in Memphis. Looks like it’s really coming down out there:

10:28 a.m. Brandon dispatches from east Nashville:

10:03 a.m. Snow is being reported in east Nashville now…in Memphis, freezing rain—which has been reported since daybreak—is reportedly beginning to transition to sleet, which should eventually transition to snow. Roads are reported clear, with glazing of ice on elevated surfaces. It looks as though Memphis might escape what was once feared a devastating ice storm.

The original post follows:

It has begun.

From Dickson Co.: “Snow with ice pellets mixed in. Sticking on contact. Very Slippery.”

From Dickson: “Ha! Lightnening 100 radio station in Nashville is playing ‘winter wonderland.’”

From west Nashville: “SNOW!!!!!!!!!!!!Big huge wonderful flakes!”

From Bellevue (Nashville): “Snow/Sleet is coming down at a moderate pace here.”

From Hermitage: “Some folks here at work are already bailing. Panic mode has started!”

http://www.tennesseewx.com

The talk around Knoxville the last few days has been all about the weather, but sight shouldn’t be lost of the fact that Tennessee coach Derek Dooley and his skeleton staff are doing an excellent job of reeling in recruits who had balked when Lane Kiffin sauntered out of town, as well as recruits who had never bought into what Kiffin and his staff were selling.

The latest Rivals.Com recruiting rankings, fresh out of the oven, have the Vols ranked as the No. 7 recruiting class in the country.

Which, by the way, is higher than USC.

A powerful winter storm is crossing the Mississippi River Valley this morning, delivering freezing rain to locations such as Memphis and Jackson in West Tennessee as the day dawns. The storm will continue to push across the Deep South today and tonight, pulverizing much of Tennessee with significant accumulations of snow, sleet and freezing rain.

The storm may well turn out to be a bust for some areas when all is said and done, but for the state as a whole, this is still looking very much like one of the worst winter storms to impact the area in years. Many areas outside the mountains could record their highest snowfall totals since the 1990s, and when one considers the border-to-border impact that this storm will have on the state, it will likely be the most significant winter storm to strike since 1988, if everything pans out as is expected.

In Scott County, there is a possibility that this could be our biggest snowfall since 1998. This area saw a short-lived 6″ snow in 2005.

The National Weather Service in Morristown has bumped the winter storm warning back to 3 p.m. this afternoon, as it becomes apparent that the precipitation will take longer to reach the region than was originally anticipated. The NWS is forecasting snow beginning by 4 p.m., with the biggest impact coming during the overnight hours. The NWS has also changed accumulating predictions for the northern areas of the state to 6-12″. That’s up from 5-9″ last night. For the Knoxville area, 4-9″ is being forecasted. Just to our west, the NWS in Nashville is forecasting 4-9″ for Fentress, Pickett and Cumberland Counties on the Cumberland Plateau and on back into the rest of the northern half of the mid-state. To our north, the NWS in Jackson, Ky., is forecasting 6-10″ for McCreary and Whitley counties and the rest of southeastern Kentucky.

Many school systems around the region canceled classes today in anticipation of the winter storm, including schools in the Scott County and Oneida school districts. While that decision will undoubtedly be second-guessed today as folks look out their window at gray skies and temperatures perhaps rising into the mid-30s, do not be fooled into thinking that it isn’t coming. When snow arrives, it may be light at first, but it will gather intensity and could lead to deteriorating road conditions in a short period of time.

The latest model runs (6z), out just before daylight, continued to hold serve. No last minute changes were expected. If this system proves to be a bust for East Tennessee, it will likely be because warmer air from the Gulf of Mexico is working its way into the atmosphere, or because drier air is working its way into the atmosphere. So far, there’s no indication that this will happen.

Even though I said the 12z model runs earlier today were the last model runs of significance before our winter storm arrives, you and I both know that we can’t resist sneaking a peek at the next set of runs to come across the wires.

The 0z NAM and GFS are both in for tonight. The Euro won’t be in until after midnight, so it’ll have to wait until tomorrow. The NAM continues to dump copious amounts of precipitation on Tennessee, but shifts the bulk of the moisture from the northern half of the state to the southern half. This is a fairly significant difference from what the model had been showing so far today. It still prints about 0.75″ or a little more to the Kentucky border, with a sharp gradient drop off north of that.

The GFS, meanwhile, has virtually no changes in the amount of precip it delivers to Tennessee, but it does shift the drop off in precip south. Like the NAM, it has a sharp drop off once you cross the TN-KY border. So if these models are correct and if the low actually tracks just a little further south than is anticipated, that could have big consequences for the northern Plateau.

Both models reduce the warm air advection they were previously showing. As compared to the 12z and especially the 18z runs, the 0z run doesn’t have much of a chance of sleet or freezing rain across the northern tier of the state. Instead, it depicts a scenario that would deliver only snow.

There are some major differences between the two models as far as timing goes. The GFS puts the beginning of precipitation in the Cumberland Plateau region by about 1 p.m. tomorrow, which is right on schedule with the winter storm warning the NWS has in place. However, if the NAM were to be correct, we might not see much in the way of precip until after dark tomorrow evening.

The National Weather Service has issued a winter storm warning for all of East Tennessee, calling for 5-9″ for most areas of the eastern third of the state. The warning goes into effect at 1 p.m. tomorrow afternoon. The southern valley and southern plateau locations are under a winter weather advisory, with 1-3″ forecasted.

UPDATE (3:50 p.m.): Avoid Walmart at all costs this evening. Yeesh. Is this the first time since the Oneida Walmart Supercenter opened that every single one of their checkout lanes have been manned at one time? Quite possibly…

UPDATE (4:37 p.m.): The NWS in Nashville has issued a winter storm warning for areas in Middle Tennessee roughly along and north of I-40, with a winter weather advisory for the southern tier of the midstate. Total snow accumulations in the northern half of the state, according to the NWS, will be 3-8″.

Part of the reason for the lower snow accumulations in NWS-Nashville’s estimation is probably the fact that they’re now forecasting a wintry mix tomorrow, with sleet and freezing rain mixing in with snow at times. This is due to warm air filtering into the mid-levels of the atmosphere. This warm air advection is being depicted by both the NAM and GFS computer models. If those models have the correct take, they will reduce snow accumulations in our neck of the woods, as well.