The storm system that we’ve talked about for a few days now is taking West Tennessee completely by surprise this morning, as warm air advection ahead of the system never materialized and some areas are receiving a dumping of snow.

As of 7:30 a.m., Memphis had already received 3″ of accumulation and it’s still snowing out there. The National Weather Service in Memphis saw this coming to some extent late last night, placing the metro area under a winter weather advisory. But they never saw it coming like this. Accumulation totals are now predicted at 4-7″ in Memphis.

What does this mean for us? There should be less moisture and more warm air once you get this far east. Places like Nashville and Murfreesboro could still be looking at a big surprise, but by the time you get to the Plateau, warm air advection should win out, creating more rain than snow. But nothing is written in stone, as the folks in the Memphis area are finding out right now.

Winter weather advisories have been extended to just west of Nashville, where the NWS is calling for up to an inch of snow.

UPDATE: Up to 5″ of snow in some parts of Memphis now.

The NWS in Morristown has issued a special weather statement, and indicates that winter weather advisories may be needed for parts of East Tennessee later today.