You might remember that there was a lot of talk on this blog starting back in February about an abrupt change from winter to spring by the start of March’s second week. We saw that switch in a way; we’ve gone from dealing with a winter weather threat about every four or five days to not even seeing temperatures conducive for winter weather. But one thing we haven’t seen is the warm temps that we normally think of when we think spring. Aside from a couple of warm days seven or eight days ago, we simply haven’t seen it. And aside from two or three days in the 60s later this week, it doesn’t look like we’re going to see it for a while longer.

Keep in mind that our average high temperature this time of year is almost 60 degrees (58, to be precise) and we’re keeping an eye on the long-range forecast for a hint of 60 degrees at some point. Colder-than-normal weather is hanging on for dear life. It really has been quite an incredible pattern since December…and really beyond that. The steady below-average temps go all the way back to the first of July last year.

As we hit the halfway mark of March, our average temperature in Oneida has been 39.2 degrees this month. And even though that’s 10 degrees warmer than February, it’s still almost six degrees below our average. Of course, that average is based on March as a whole, and from a climatological standpoint, we should have the coldest part of the month behind us.

But do we? That’s the question. While there’s no spectacularly cold weather on the horizon, as we often see in March, there’s certainly no prolonged warm temperatures on the horizon, either. And looking at modeling data for the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), it looks like it will start trending further into negative territory over the next couple of weeks, while the Arctic Oscillation (AO) looks to do the same. This is all driven by a storm system that will impact our area this upcoming weekend, dragging a cold front behind it. Why is this important? A negative NAO/AO regime often leads to colder-than-average temperatures in this part of the world.

So the question will become whether other factors can help overcome the blocking in the northern latitudes. At this point, there might be a better chance of an early spring arctic air outbreak than a string of 70 degree days in our neck of the woods. Spring is already going to be late. Lilac bushes are only now beginning to bud around here and dogwoods are showing no signs of blooming. Even the daffodils are struggling to get going.