Rain and underdogs
Sep 6th
Tennessee opens as a 13.5 pt. underdog to No. 11 Oregon, which visits Neyland Stadium Saturday (7 p.m., ESPN).
Preliminary indications also support rain in the forecast for Saturday. Rain, as they say, is the great equalizer in football. (“They” obviously weren’t sitting through the 2002 debacle that was Florida 30, Tennessee 13 at Neyland Stadium.)
Currently, the National Weather Service has a 30% chance of thunderstorms in the forecast for Knoxville on Saturday. That could very well increase from “chance” to “likely” as gameday approaches.
Moisture will stream into the region early this week, enhanced by a tropical system that is emerging over land in Texas. That will help to push up temperatures, with nightly lows staying in the 60s as opposed to the 40s and 50s seen the last three mornings. A pair of cold fronts will push through the region to interact with the moisture and create storm chances from the middle of the week all the way through the weekend. The first comes late Wednesday into Thursday. The second (and strongest) comes on Saturday. The GFS computer model supports the chance of numerous thunderstorms across the Tennessee Valley and the Appalachians on Saturday and Saturday evening.
A big cat
Sep 5th
I’m a firm believer that there are “big cats,” aka cougars, panthers, wild cats, mountain lions, etc., in Tennessee…even if, as wildlife officials insist, there isn’t a “sustainable population.”
But there’s little doubt that the bulk of the big cat reports are cases of mistaken identity. It’s difficult to mistake a bobcat or even a feral feline of the house cat variety for a mountain lion, right?
Not necessarily, and here’s a perfect example why. This photo was taken by my motion-activated game camera on our deer lease. It is easily the largest bobcat I’ve ever seen. If this cat darted across the road in front of them, a lot of people (myself included) would probably insist that they had just seen a cougar.
In fact, I wasn’t certain of what I was looking at until I hiked out with my camera and transferred the photos to my laptop so I could see its color pattern and bobbed tail.
Interestingly, the cat (which showed up in other photos) happened by my camera at lunch time, just nine minutes after a doe had passed through. The doe and her fawn have been frequenting the area and I wouldn’t be surprised if the cat doesn’t have his eyes on the fawn. Bobcats don’t often prey on deer but he’s plenty big enough to take down a fawn with little trouble.
My camera was covered in muddy paw prints, as if something had attacked it. This is the photo that was recorded. It’s anybody’s guess as to what it was.
A cool September morning
Sep 5th
According to official weather data monitored by the National Weather Service at the Oneida Water Treatment Plant, the temperature dropped to 44 degrees this morning.
That’s three degrees shy of the daily record, set back in 1997.
One Crossville station recorded 39 degrees this morning. If that’s verified, it would be a new record low for this date. (The old record is 46.)
The official high in Oneida this afternoon was 73 degrees.
Unfortunately, all signs point towards a quick return of the heat. The NWS in Morristown is forecasting a high of 84 in Oneida by tomorrow and 89 by Tuesday. And that cold front that was showing up by the end of next weekend by some models is no longer showing up. The next two weeks look very warm with temperatures well above average.
This comes as the NWS declares the 2010 summer the hottest on record in East Tennessee. In fact, it wasn’t even close. The average summer temperature at all three major sites (Knoxville, Chattanooga and the Tri-Cities) was nearly a full degree above the previous record, according to the NWS.
It’s hard for me to believe that this summer was warmer than 1980. But according to the NWS, the average temperature at Knoxville’s McGhee-Tyson Airport was 79.9 in June, 81.8 in July and 81.4 in August. The 30-year rolling averages are 74.3, 78.1 and 77.3, respectively.
As I said before, all meteorological signs point towards the general trend of above-average temperatures continuing all the way through fall.
Rebs, ‘Hawks would agree: don’t play FCS teams
Sep 5th
To watch the reaction of North Dakota State players as the final seconds ticked away in the Bisons’ 6-3 win over Kansas Saturday, one would think NDSU had just won a major bowl game.
Except NDSU isn’t eligible for bowl games because NDSU isn’t a Division I-A (FBS) team.
The Bison, which hail from Fargo, N.D., are a Division I-AA (FCS) team. They’re eligible for playoffs and championships against teams like Appalachian State and William & Mary.
But what happens in November and December won’t top what happened Saturday for NDSU’s players and coaches. The highlight of their season will be toppling the Jayhawks.
Less than three seasons removed from a BCS bowl and a Top Ten national ranking, Kansas was embarrassed in a big way by a North Dakota State team that could muster only 168 yards of total offense.
The Jayhawk nation—those willing to show their faces, anyway—was in an uproar today over their team’s showing in the season opener. Just one game into his tenure at Kansas, Turner Gill has a bounty on his head (figuratively speaking…for now, at least).
At least Kansas had an excuse: breaking in a new coach.
Ole Miss had much less of an excuse. The Rebels won nine games last season and were fresh off a successful NCAA appeal that allowed talented but troubled quarterback Jeremiah Masoli, the Oregon outcast signed by Houston Nutt before the season began, to take the field this season.
But that didn’t stop Jacksonville State from storming back from a 31-10 deficit to defeat Nutt’s Rebs in double overtime.
Less than 12 hours into the first Saturday of the college football season and already two FCS teams had defeated FBS teams. And if Gill and the Jayhawks were embarrassed by their baseball score loss to NDSU, the Rebs had to be mortified by their 49-48 debacle against Jacksonville State.
Once considered a mockery to the virtues of big-time college football, games against FCS opponents are showing up on FBS schedules with an increasing regularity. (When Tennessee played its first FCS opponent in 27 years Saturday, it became the last holdout in the 12-team SEC to play a FCS team since league expansion in 1992.) And FCS teams are beating their big brothers with increasing regularity.
NDSU’s win over Kansas wasn’t the Bison’s first win over a BCS school; in 2007, they surprised Minnesota. In fact, the Bison are 4-3 against FBS schools since making the move to the FCS in 2006.
In 2007, Appalachian State shocked the college football world by beating No. 5 Michigan and effectively bringing the Lloyd Carr era to an end in Ann Arbor. In 2009, two ACC teams fell to FCS schools (Duke to the University of Richmond and Virginia to William & Mary).
FCS teams aren’t supposed to beat FBS teams, and most don’t. While the NDSU and Jacksonville State generated all the headlines this weekend, the other 38 FCS teams that faced FBS schools all lost.
But enough FCS teams are successful in their upset bids against Division I-A teams to serve notice to the big league schools: stop scheduling these teams!
There are traditionally two reasons for teams to schedule a game against an FCS school: a sure win (ahem) puts you closer to bowl eligibility, and sometimes you need a good tuneup to the season. In Tennessee’s case, it needed both. As the Vols broke in a new coach with a roster that featured about as many scholarship players as a school on major NCAA probation, it was hard to blame them for opening the season against an FCS foe (though Martin was placed on the schedule in April 2009, long before it was known that Lane Kiffin would jump ship for USC, in the process further depleting the Vols’ roster).
But Tennessee’s 50-0 win over Martin hardly told the Vols anything about themselves. As Knoxville News Sentinel columnist John Adams wrote today, the best yesterday’s win could do was put UT’s questions on hold.
The upside is that Tennessee’s new offensive line, new quarterback and new coaching staff could ease into the season at game speed before being thrown to the wolves when Oregon and Florida visit Neyland Stadium.
But the same thing could’ve been accomplished with a Central Michigan or Arkansas State on the roster.
In other words, there’s more to risk than to gain from playing an FCS school. Losing to Central Michigan or Arkansas State would be an embarrassing start for a new coach, but not nearly as bad as losing to a UT-Martin (or North Dakota State or Jacksonville State), simply because those other schools come with the “FCS” tag affixed.
Perception is everything. If Michigan had lost to Western Michigan in 2007, Lloyd Carr might have still had his job in 2008, even though the loss would have been every bit as inexcusable. If Ole Miss had lost to Southern Miss yesterday, there would be far fewer Rebel fans angry at Houston Nutt today.
To be fair, the teams making shocking headlines against FBS schools are the cream of the crop in the lower division. Appalachian State was en route to its third consecutive national championship when the Mountaineers defeated Michigan in 2007. Richmond was ranked No. 2 in the FCS coaches poll when it defeated Duke last season, and William & Mary is a perennial power in Division I-AA football.
Martin, by comparison, isn’t likely to beat any Division I-A team.
But there’s little doubt that the gap between the two NCAA divisions is slowly closing. Appy State became the first FCS team to beat a ranked FBS team in 2007. Last year, Northern Iowa was a hair away from becoming the second; No. 22 Iowa had to block two field goals in the final seven seconds to preserve a win.
It’s only a matter of time before another BCS school, and another ranked one at that, winds up with egg on its face. FCS schools might still be good for a tune-up, but it’s becoming increasingly apparent that they are no longer good for guaranteed victories.
So, the question: Who’s next?
The most likely victim isn’t something Tennessee fans will want to think about.
When North Texas backed out of its 2011 date with the Vols, UT signed a one-year deal with Montana. The Grizzlies are currently ranked No. 2 in the FCS. They won national championships in 1995 and 2001 and have finished as Division I-AA’s runner-up each of the past two seasons. They have won or shared 11 of the past 16 Big Sky championships.
With Oregon, Florida, Alabama, Georgia, LSU and South Carolina lurking on the 2010 schedule, Montana is the furthest thing from the Vols’ minds. But 2010 will eventually give way to 2011 and the subject will inevitably be broached: could Tennessee be next?
Yes, it very much could.
Tennesse vs. UT-Martin: 10 points
Sep 5th
1.) We knew it already but everything about the way Derek Dooley conducted himself today—from the Vol Walk to the post-game—screamed one thing: our new coach couldn’t be more different from our old coach. Hat’s off to the Tennessee coaching staff. The Vols didn’t look great today, but then no one really expects Tennessee to be a great team. What the Vols did look was prepared. And they played that way.
2.) Dooley isn’t totally exempt from criticism, however. With the Vols up 42-0 in the fourth quarter, some of Tennessee’s starters were still in the game, including team-leading receiver Gerald Jones. Who was subsequently injured. Early indications are it’s a broken hand. Hindsight is 20-20 but that seemed like a high risk/low benefit situation.
3.) Matt Simms played well overall given that it was his first start. He managed the offense well and in some respects looked like a seasoned veteran. He didn’t panic and didn’t get jittery, even in the face of pressure. On the other hand, Simms stared down his receivers all night long. On almost every single play, Simms was locked in on his receiver from the moment he took the snap. That didn’t hurt too much tonight, but if that becomes a habit, he’ll pay dearly against better teams, starting with Oregon next week.
4.) Hat’s off to the Tennessee crowd. I expected attendance to be down, as season openers go, but it wasn’t all bad. Announced attendance was 99,123. Actual attendance wasn’t hardly that much, but it probably wasn’t far from it. And the crowd was vocal, despite the game being really nothing more than a glorified scrimmage. Dooley got loud ovations at every turn today, from the Vol Walk to his introduction with the Tennessee starting lineup to when he left the field at halftime. Tennessee fans want desperately to believe in their coach.
5.) Tennessee’s receivers appeared a little lazy today, getting very little separation from UT-Martin’s defensive backs. If you have trouble getting open against a middle-of-the-road OVC team, you’re certainly going to have some problems getting open against a front-running Pac-10 team. UT-Martin insisted on putting man-on-man coverage on Jones and Denarius Moore. Tennessee only made them pay a couple of times. Jones and Moore should’ve been able to beat Martin’s DBs almost at will.
6.) Poole + Oku is going to become a dangerous tandem for Tennessee in the backfield.
7.) How many big plays did Tyler Wolf make in the second half? Someone move this kid up the depth chart.
8.) It’s hard to gauge just how good they might be because UT-Martin was so physically overmatched, but Tennessee’s defense played outstanding football today. Going into the fourth quarter, Martin had just two first downs, one of which came when a deflected pass fell into the arms of an unintended receiver. The Skyhawks didn’t come close to sniffing the end zone.
9.) Despite the focus on special teams, Tennessee’s special teams didn’t look much better. Kickoff coverage was good, all in all, but the kickoffs themselves weren’t so great. Daniel Lincoln was two-of-two on field goal tries, but one of them was very low…just like last year. Jones and Oku each muffed a punt, one of them leading to a turnover. And Tennessee even had an illegal formation penalty on a field goal attempt, which I didn’t even know was possible.
10.) I predicted 52-3, so my score was pretty much spot-on. But everybody was thinking what nobody wanted to say: what if UT-Martin comes to Knoxville and does to Tennessee what Appalachian State did to Michigan? Getting beat by a FCS team would be purely embarrassing. Well, it wasn’t going to happen because Martin ain’t Appy State. But UT fans can ask Houston Nutt how it feels. On a day that saw three SEC schools play FCS opponents, the first time anyone from the SEC has faced a Division I-AA school since league expansion in 1992 (Arkansas hosted Tennessee Tech today as well), Jacksonville State shocked Ole Miss in double overtime after coming back from a 31-10 deficit. Jacksonville State is a much better team than UT-Martin, but there’s still no excuse for the Rebs.
Extra point: Tennessee fans moaned when they saw Oregon’s 72-0 win over New Mexico pop up. The Ducks led that game 59-0 at halftime. The Lobos are one of the worst teams in Division I-A football, but still…if anyone in orange was seriously entertaining thoughts of upsetting the Quackers next week, they might have set those hopes aside tonight. (At least until tomorrow morning, when they’ll once again be convincing themselves that the Vols are invincible.) On the other hand, maybe Tennessee fans are daring to think that the Vols have a chance against Florida. The Gators’ first game AT (After Tebow) was a disaster offensively, even though they won 34-12. Florida had just 12 yards of total offense going into the fourth quarter.
More perspective
Sep 4th
As Christians, we often hear it said that we’re fortunate to live in America, where we have the freedom to worship without fear. Yet we continue to take that freedom for granted. Religious persecution is only something that happened in Biblical times, we think. Here’s a dose of perspective:
Gameday, and that’s all that matters
Sep 4th
So Tennessee is playing Tennessee-Martin today.
As if you didn’t know by the dozens of people on Craigslist begging people to take their tickets for $30 each (face value is $40, and those Craigslist prices are going no where but down as kickoff rolls closer), UT-Martin is a Division I-AA (Football Championship Subdivision) team. And not a very good one at that.
Not only are the Skyhawks picked to finish in the bottom half of the weak Ohio Valley Conference, they just also happen to be from a sister school. It’s big brother vs. little brother. You almost feel sorry cheering for cheering against Martin. (One of the Martin players commented earlier this week that the majority of Skyhawks alumni are Vols fans.) It’s almost as if today’s game (6 p.m., PPV) is more of an intramural face-off than a game that is actually being played for keeps.
But, in the end, it doesn’t really matter. It’s Tennessee football. It’s a moment that’s been waited for ever since the waning moments of last New Year’s Day’s bowl loss to Virginia Tech. Tennessee-Martin, Tennessee School for the Deaf or the High School Male Cheerleaders Union of the Southeast, it doesn’t really matter. It’s Tennessee football. And it sure beats spending a July afternoon on the deck talking about how hot it is and wishing college football season would hurry up and get here.
If you aren’t a little bit anxious right about now, you might not be breathing. It’s gameday. For now, Tennessee is undefeated. For now, Tennessee is squarely in the middle of the SEC championship race. For now, anything is possible.
It’s been a difficult off-season for the Vols. From the Kiffin debacle to a barroom brawl, Tennessee has had its share of hardships that have made the off-season drag along at a snail’s pace. Today, it’s time to set all that aside and play football.
From Ft. Sanders to the Old City they’ll come this afternoon, converging on a newly-renovated (and very beautiful) Neyland Stadium.
By 3:30 p.m., Tennessee fans will be lined up five and six deep along Peyton Pass, waiting to catch a glimpse of the Vols headed to Neyland Stadium. They’ll shout words of encouragement to new head coach Derek Dooley, new defensive coordinator Justin Wilcox and the rest of the team. Kids in #14 jerseys will stretch their arms across the police tape in an effort to get a handshake from their heroes.
By 4:30 p.m., the Pride of the Southland Band will be marching down Holt Avenue. As they pause at the intersection of Phillip Fulmer Way to salute The Hill, the endless sounds of Rocky Top will be like manna to football fans’ ears.
By 5 p.m., Bobby Denton will be welcoming fans to Neyland Stadium “and this afternoon’s game.” He’ll urge you to pay the concession prices in your Souvenir Game Program and introduce the Priiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiide of the Southland Marching Band for “a pregame tradition unprecedented in college football.”
By 5:55 p.m., the band will split the T and Dooley will lead his charges onto Shields-Watkins Field, signaling the beginning of a new era. And maybe this era will be the one that replicates the success of the 1990s. No, a game against UT-Martin doesn’t mean much. But with every new beginning is hope. And the hopes of Vol fans throughout Big Orange Country will be pinned on the son of a Southern football legend at 6 p.m. this evening.
From the opening kickoff to the Circle Drill, it’s Tennessee football. The outcome isn’t likely to be in doubt for any longer than it takes you to wolf down a $5 hot dog from the concession stand that tastes like it was cooked last week. But that’s okay. Because there isn’t a better way to spend a fall Saturday afternoon with temperatures in the 70s and brilliant blue skies than inside one of college football’s greatest venues, on the banks of the Tennessee River.
Tonight’s scores of interest
Sep 3rd
It’s a good thing I’m not a gambler
Wartburg 13, Oneida 7. It might well have been Wartburg’s biggest win this decade. For the first time in many years, the Bulldogs are off to a 3-0 start, earning their first win over the Indians in any of the current players’ lifetimes. And, they’re in the driver’s seat for the District 4-A championship. For a second consecutive week, turnovers were crucial for an Oneida team that played well enough to win the game if not for those turnovers. The bad news? At Cumberland Gap and at Greenback the next two weeks, and district foes Oliver Springs and Sunbright both look very good. The good news? Oneida doesn’t play another meaningful district game for more than a month. That’s a long time to get better before traveling to Oz in five weeks. (Prediction was Oneida 35-14.)
Kingston 21, Scott 12. In a defensive battle, Kingston led 7-0 at halftime, then outlasted Scott in the second half as the Highlanders continue what might be the most frustrating series losing streak in Tennessee high school football. (Prediction was Scott 34-21.)
Alcoa 42, Loudon 3. We knew Alcoa’s offense was outstanding. Tonight the Tornadoes showed that they can play a little defense, too. (Prediction was Alcoa 42-21.)
Coalfield 28, Sunbright 27. Two good teams that aren’t separated by much. Just as expected. This is a good (and getting better) Sunbright team. But Coalfield is still the best Class 1A team in the district. (Prediction was Coalfield 27, Sunbright 21.)
Oliver Springs 41, Oakdale 0. Oz led 34-0 at the half and then turned off the jets and cruised to victory.
Anderson County 56, Campbell County 7. Davey Gillum is an offensive mastermind. He ran his offense with a lot of success at Scott High. It stood to reason that with more weapons at his disposal at Andy County, that offense was going to shine. This one was 49-7 at halftime. Prediction: Gillum will one day be an offensive coordinator at the college level (the NCAA level, that is; he’s already served as offensive coordinator at Pikeville College).
Other scores worth noting:
Austin-East 19, Fulton 6
Greenback 17, Rockwood 10
Grace Christian 48, Tellico Plains 6
Harriman 35, Midway 20
Oak Ridge 41, Central 14
Clinton 35, Karns 0
CAK 55, Stone Memorial 15
Catholic 21, Farragut 18
Boyd Buchanan 40, Silverdale 0
York Institute 25, Upperman 6
Smith County 16, Livingston Academy 6
Monterey 17, Clay County 7
Hampton 25, Cosby 22
Red Boiling Springs 42, Pickett County 0
Trousdale County 42, Jackson County 14
Cool temps but no danger of records falling
Sep 3rd
The latest numbers from the GFS computer model suggest that Oneida will struggle to climb far into the 70s tomorrow (reaching a high of 72), and will drop to 45 by daybreak on Sunday morning before warming to 78 Sunday afternoon.
It’s definitely another sign that fall is just around the corner (though temps are expected to quickly rebound, to the mid 80s by back-to-work Tuesday). But even though those morning temps will definitely be unusually cool if they verify (the normal morning low in Oneida this time of year is 57), they shouldn’t come even close to record territory.
According to National Weather Service records, the record low temperature in Oneida for Sept. 5 is 41 degrees. And it wasn’t set as long ago as you might think. Back in 1997, we dropped to 41 in Oneida on the morning of Sept. 5.
This is the time of year when nighttime temperatures begin to quickly drop off and cooler air from northern latitudes begins to have an easier time penetrating southern locales. It might surprise you to know that our earliest recorded freeze in Oneida is Sept. 22, and it’s been cold enough for light frost by Sept. 11 (on Sept. 11, 1976, Oneida fell to 36 degrees).
WARM WEATHER PREVAILS
A true touch of fall this weekend may do little to dissuade summer from making a few more dying lunges before it finally succumbs to the change of the seasons. Medium-range indicators continue to hint at warmer-than-average weather for the month of September as a whole. In fact, it’s looking as though warm weather might be the general rule for the entire autumn season. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center agrees, predicting above-average temperatures for much of the eastern U.S. (and, indeed, much of the nation) all the way through November. That doesn’t mean there won’t be brief bouts of cold weather, but we could see temperatures that routinely climb into the 80s well into October, and temps that routinely climb into the 70s all the way through November as a powerful (and still strengthening) La Nina pattern takes hold of global weather patterns.
With any luck, upper-level ridging over the Southeast will not become so powerful that it doesn’t allow cold-air intrusions to make it this far south. For now, the ridge looks to be somewhat weak over the next several weeks. In fact, another cold front appears on tap by the end of next weekend (though not as strong as this weekend’s cold front) to knock back the heat that’s going to build over the region in the days ahead. But it stands to reason that ridging will gradually increase as September transitions to October.
And while no one wants to see drought conditions develop, one could look at the developing global patterns and also conclude that dry weather will dominate in our region through at least the early part of autumn. Lower humidity means those warmer-than-average fall days will be more tolerable. In fact, most everyone besides deer hunters (who are sick enough to embrace nose-numbing cold weather) would agree that temps in the 30s/70s are ideal for October and November.
STORMS AND RUMORS OF STORMS
One thing that will have to be watched for as these global weather patterns develop is severe weather. It’s been several years since our region has dealt with bonafide severe weather threats in the fall, but autumn is the Southeast’s secondary severe weather season for a reason. As the La Nina-typical pattern of warmth in the Southeast and cold in the Northwest takes hold, a perfect breeding ground for severe weather will develop on the periphery of the warmer air region as the cooler air begins to make its seasonal dives down through the Rockies and the Plains towards the Mississippi and Ohio river valleys.
