Scott County

Scott County’s 2010 general election is in the book. Though the results won’t be certified until Aug. 19, it’s unlikely that anything will change. The only thing that appears to be even slightly in jeopardy is the Fourth District County Commission race, where two votes separated incumbent Dennis Sexton and challenger Brian Armstrong.

So what did the elections tell us?

County Mayor’s Race: When early voting results were reported to press gathered at the County Office Building shortly before 8:30 p.m. Thursday, jaws dropped. The opinion of almost everyone was that Jeff Tibbals would unseat incumbent Rick Keeton. But four-to-one?

“I expected two-to-one,” one veteran election watcher said. “But I never expected that.”

Nor did anyone else. I’ve talked to many people since Thursday and their reaction to Tibbals’ margin of victory is always the same: “Wow.”

Usually an incumbent doesn’t get beat by that much unless there’s some sort of a scandal during his tenure. But there was no scandal in the County Mayor’s Office. In fact, most people agree that Keeton is a good guy.

“Rick is a good man; I’m just not sure he’s a strong leader,” one voter commented Thursday.

Thursday’s results weren’t an indictment on Keeton’s personality or likability, but Scott County’s stagnant employment situation. Unemployment skyrocketed as the economy sank into recession in late 2007 and never recovered, even with a $2 million jobs package implemented by Gov. Phil Bredesen.

The recession would have occurred regardless of who was in the mayor’s seat, and Armstrong would’ve left regardless of who was in the mayor’s seat. But would the unemployment have risen so high or stayed high for so long? Apparently, the vast majority of Scott County voters didn’t think so.

When Armstrong announced in February that it was idling operations at the Oneida mill, many commented that it might have been the final nail in the coffin of Mayor Keeton’s re-election hopes.

Judging by Thursday’s vote, the final nail was in place well before the Armstrong announcement.

County Commission races: Despite a largely anti-incumbent sentiment among the electorate, only one commissioner failed in his bid for re-election (Fifth District’s Rothel “Tub” Cross, who was unseated by Harold Chambers).

Surprising? Not really. Most of the incumbents seeking re-election were strong incumbents. Long-serving commissioners Mike Slaven (West Oneida) and Ernest Phillips (Huntsville) remained popular in their districts and freshmen commissioners Paul Strunk (Winfield), Alan Reed (Helenwood), Willie Boyatt (West Oneida) and Gerry Garrett (Oneida) seemed to have made a good impression on voters in their respective districts during their first term.

Several people commented in the days leading up to the election that Cross was the incumbent likely in the most trouble. And, in fact, that’s how it turned out.

Had the five retiring incumbents sought re-election this term, it’s likely that at least one of them would’ve been unseated, and perhaps as many as three of them. That isn’t to say that any of the five decided not to run because they saw the writing on the wall. Rather, it seems more like coincidence that a few of the five—who decided not to run for various reasons—might have been weaker in their respective districts than some of the other candidates.

So the anti-incumbent mood was there, it was just overshadowed by strong incumbent candidates who were able to overcome the complaints of the general public on issues such as hospital uncertainty and mounting county debt.

On the other hand, there will still be six new faces on the 14-member legislative body when it convenes in September. And only three of the 14 will have served longer than four consecutive years (Slaven, Phillips and Ronnie Blevins of Oneida; Harold Chambers of Winfield was defeated in 2006 and re-elected last week).

Sheriff’s Race: “I could’ve voted for a lot of them, but Mike Cross has done a great job in Oneida,” a voter commented Thursday. That seemed to sum up the thoughts of the majority as the Oneida chief of police emerged from a crowded field as Scott County’s new sheriff. “He’ll do good,” one of his officers commented after the vote was tallied. “I have no doubts.”

Cross is generally viewed as taking an Oneida Police Department that was in need of overhaul and turning it into one of the state’s better law enforcement agencies. That view carried over to the election.

On the other hand, two other points were made as well. Bobby Ellis garnered about 1,400 write-in votes. My thinking was that Ellis and Cross were nearly neck-in-neck in terms of support as the election arrived. But it has been well-written that write-in campaigns are extremely difficult to pull off. Had Ellis been on the ballot, it’s likely that he and Cross would have been neck-and-neck.

And then  there’s Jim Carson. As the election neared, an increasing number of observers commented that it would be no surprise to see Carson win the election. He didn’t win, but came in second with more than 1,600 votes. Clearly, the Carson family still enjoys considerable support in Scott County.

Oneida School Board: That there is a new face on the Oneida Special School District Board of Education isn’t surprising. What is surprising is that long-time incumbent Brom Shoemaker finished last in the six-person field. Could the board’s new makeup mean a shakeup in the school system that reaches all the way to the top of the district? It’s not out of the realm of possibility. In fact, some would say it’s probable. Newcomer Mark Matthews has been quiet about what his intentions are. Going into the election, it was generally viewed that Director of Schools Henry Baggett enjoyed a 3-2 favorable majority on the board. One of the favorables was Shoemaker.

“I would presume that Oneida will have a new director by next fall,” one veteran politico commented. Baggett’s contract expires next summer.

On the other hand, no board member has explicitly said that they’re in favor of hiring a new director. And each of Baggett’s contract extensions since he was hired by the board has enjoyed unanimous support.

Primaries: Republican congressional candidate Scott DesJarlais received more votes (1,509) than Lincoln Davis (1,271) despite having to fend off primary challengers. Unopposed GOP state representative candidate Kelly Keisling received more votes (1,737) than long-time Democratic incumbent and Scott native Les Winningham (1,327).

Has the national backlash against Democrats reached Scott County?

Maybe not. Early voting numbers had indicated many more Republican primary ballots than Democrat primary ballots were being cast, and that turned out to be the case. The heated GOP gubernatorial primary and unopposed Democrat gubernatorial primary was just one reason. In the 4th, there were no competitive primaries on the Democratic ballot; all of the GOP primary opponents had opposition.

However, a look at the 2006 primaries in Scott County reveals enough to raise questions as to whether something might be amiss. While both Gov. Bredesen and Rep. Davis had primary opposition in ‘06, the Republican races (for governor, Congress and especially the U.S. Senate) were much more heated. And more Democrats than Republicans voted in the primary. Scott County tends to vote Republican in presidential elections but often votes Democrat in state-level and congressional elections.

Are Winningham and Davis in trouble? That remains to be seen. Conventional wisdom says that Winningham isn’t—not in Scott County, anyway—and Davis probably isn’t. But Mike McWherter is. McWherter received 1,082 votes in Scott County Thursday, while Davis received 1,271 and Winningham received 1,327. Some Democrats who were casting complimentary votes for Winningham and Davis weren’t bothering to vote for McWherter. That underscores a statewide trend that will manifest itself in the runup to the November general election: Mike McWherter is going to have a very difficult time defeating Bill Haslam.

Today is election day across Tennessee.

In Scott County, only a couple of countywide offices are contested. Most office holders are running without opposition. That didn’t stop local voters from turning out in near-record numbers for the early voting period, though there have been some reports that polling is light today.

The polls close at 8 p.m., and shortly thereafter we’ll have a very clear picture of how the County Commission will be seated in September. By about 10 p.m., we should know who the next county mayor will be. The sheriff’s race could be decided by 11 p.m., or it might carry on into the night, depending on how many votes Bobby Ellis receives in his write-in campaign.

The voting machines will tabulate the number of write-in votes at the same time as it tabulates a tally for all candidates on the ballot. Assuming most or all write-in votes are Ellis’s, we should have a reasonably clear picture of how many votes Ellis is receiving as the precincts report. The write-in votes will have to be verified on an individual basis. If there are enough to put Ellis in contention to win, it may stretch on well into the night before there’s a clear-cut winner. If there aren’t enough write-in votes to put him in contention to win, the sheriff’s race picture will become clear at about the same time as the county mayor’s race.

It’ll remain to be seen which precincts come in first, though the smaller ones (Elgin, Robbins, Pine Hill and Capital Hill) are typically closer to the front of the pack. Here’s what to look for as they do come in:

1st District: For the past 16 years, the 1st District has decided the sheriff’s race. Jim Carson carried the district easily each time he was elected, and Anthony Lay won his home district by a comfortable margin in 2006. This year, there is no clear-cut winner in the district heading into election day. In fact, one sheriff’s candidate predicts the vote on the east end will be more widely split than it has ever been split before.

Mike Cross calls the first district his home. But he doesn’t expect to win there. In fact, Cross has said that he’ll feel comfortable if he can just hold his own in the 1st and 2nd Districts. If Cross emerges from the 1st District as the leader, it probably doesn’t bode well for the other candidates. On the other hand, if Carson emerges strong from his old stomping grounds, it could be an early sign that he’s on his way to electoral redemption.

Early voting was down quite a bit in the 1st District, but it remains to be seen whether that was an indicator for things to come today.

In the county mayor’s race, conventional wisdom says incumbent Rick Keeton needs big wins in the 1st, 2nd and 3rd Districts to off-set the carnage that’s anticipated in the 6th and 7th Districts. If Jeff Tibbals emerges as the winner in the 1st or 2nd District, it’s probably an early sign that he’s headed for victory. On the other hand, if Ed King comes out of either of those districts in the lead, it could be an early sign of a major upset. The same statements apply to the 3rd District as well as the 4th, which is Keeton’s home district.

2nd District: Another district carried by Carson during his terms in office, Ellis also enjoys support in the 2nd District. If the 2nd District comes in early without a large number of write-in votes, it may be an early indicator that Ellis’s write-in campaign isn’t going as well as he had hoped. Like the 1st District, if Cross is the leader when the 2nd District votes come in, it’s a bad indicator for the other candidates. The 2nd is the home district of Brian Keeton, who has worked the district hard in hopes of winning big. If Keeton lags behind in the 2nd, it’s almost a sure bet that his upset bid is going to come up short.

The 2nd District is also home to one of the most intriguing district races in the county. No fewer than five candidates have a legitimate shot of capturing the two County Commission seats being vacated by Clyde Zachary and Leonard Bertram. There are also plenty of storylines: candidate Jim Reed is also the county’s EMS director and has taken some flack from his opponents for what they say would be a conflict of interest. Reed says he has researched the situation thoroughly at the state level to be sure that he is in the clear to seek county office. If June Jeffers wins, she would be the first female commissioner in Scott County History. Candidate Dicky Bertram is the brother of retiring Commissioner Leonard Bertram.

3rd District: Assuming Mike Cross holds his own in the 1st and 2nd Districts, he can probably withstand a loss to Brad Lay or Jim Carson in the 3rd District and still be in contention to win the sheriff’s race. In the mayor’s race, a win here for Jeff Tibbals is proof-positive that he’s on his way to victory.

4th District: Helenwood may be the clearest indication of who is going to win the sheriff’s race. None of the candidates have a vested interest in the district, and it should be fairly well split. If one candidate emerges victorious by a large margin here, he’s probably going to win the race.

In the mayor’s race, the 4th is the home district of Rick Keeton. If he doesn’t win the 4th, he isn’t going to win re-election.

5th District: Brad Lay’s home district also falls close to Mike Cross’s core of influence. It stands to reason that Lay must win the 3rd and 5th Districts if he is to pull off what would have at one time been considered an upset but now seems to be a fairly good chance. If Cross wins the 5th, he will probably be the next sheriff. Interestingly, Winfield was also Ellis’s last place of employment before he joined the Sheriff’s Department, and he’ll enjoy some support in the 5th District as well.

The 5th District is also home to another of those hotly contested district races. Several challengers seem to have their sights set on incumbent Rothel “Tub” Cross. That could be an indication that those challengers feel Paul Strunk has locked down his re-election bid…or it could mean that they simply see Cross as the most vulnerable. Strunk was the top vote-getter in the 5th by a comfortable margin in 2006. Challengers include former commissioner Harold Chambers, John L. Strunk, Carolyn Lay, Wilburn Walker and Joe “Buster” Marlow.

6th District: This is a chance for Jeff Tibbals and Mike Cross to clean house. Big wins here don’t guarantee either of capturing their respective races, but if they fall short here, it’s pretty much a clear indication that they’re going to come up short. A report from earlier indicated that voting was very light in Oneida today. We’ll see whether that holds true as the day progresses.

The 6th is also home to one of two county commission races that are widely figured to be relatively uncontested. If Donnie Bowlin pulls off an upset win over either Ron Blevins or Gerry “Greasey” Garrett, it could show just how great the anti-incumbent attitude is amongst the electorate and set the stage for massive turnover on County Commission.

7th District: Early voting was up significantly in the 7th over 2006…the only district to fall into that category. What that means remains to be seen. Probably it’s due to a few factors: one, the 7th District is the fastest-growing district in the county. Two, it’s the only district with a contested race for the county board of education (Raymond Thompson, John Vernon Thompson and Bryon Foster vying for the seat being vacated by Rodney West). But the 7th is also the home district of mayoral candidate Ed King. Mike Cross and Jeff Tibbals enjoy quite a bit of support here as well, but Bobby Ellis also appears to have a good number of supporters in the 7th, which could prove to be the most interesting district, results-wise, as the night progresses.

A few other individual commissioners worth watching: Ernest Phillips in the 3rd, Paul Strunk in the 5th and Mike Slaven in the 7th. Conventional wisdom (and talk in the coffee shops) says that those three should be safe in their re-election bids. If any one of them is unseated, it’s a dangerous night for every incumbent on the ballot.