Weather
Cool temps but no danger of records falling
Sep 3rd
The latest numbers from the GFS computer model suggest that Oneida will struggle to climb far into the 70s tomorrow (reaching a high of 72), and will drop to 45 by daybreak on Sunday morning before warming to 78 Sunday afternoon.
It’s definitely another sign that fall is just around the corner (though temps are expected to quickly rebound, to the mid 80s by back-to-work Tuesday). But even though those morning temps will definitely be unusually cool if they verify (the normal morning low in Oneida this time of year is 57), they shouldn’t come even close to record territory.
According to National Weather Service records, the record low temperature in Oneida for Sept. 5 is 41 degrees. And it wasn’t set as long ago as you might think. Back in 1997, we dropped to 41 in Oneida on the morning of Sept. 5.
This is the time of year when nighttime temperatures begin to quickly drop off and cooler air from northern latitudes begins to have an easier time penetrating southern locales. It might surprise you to know that our earliest recorded freeze in Oneida is Sept. 22, and it’s been cold enough for light frost by Sept. 11 (on Sept. 11, 1976, Oneida fell to 36 degrees).
WARM WEATHER PREVAILS
A true touch of fall this weekend may do little to dissuade summer from making a few more dying lunges before it finally succumbs to the change of the seasons. Medium-range indicators continue to hint at warmer-than-average weather for the month of September as a whole. In fact, it’s looking as though warm weather might be the general rule for the entire autumn season. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center agrees, predicting above-average temperatures for much of the eastern U.S. (and, indeed, much of the nation) all the way through November. That doesn’t mean there won’t be brief bouts of cold weather, but we could see temperatures that routinely climb into the 80s well into October, and temps that routinely climb into the 70s all the way through November as a powerful (and still strengthening) La Nina pattern takes hold of global weather patterns.
With any luck, upper-level ridging over the Southeast will not become so powerful that it doesn’t allow cold-air intrusions to make it this far south. For now, the ridge looks to be somewhat weak over the next several weeks. In fact, another cold front appears on tap by the end of next weekend (though not as strong as this weekend’s cold front) to knock back the heat that’s going to build over the region in the days ahead. But it stands to reason that ridging will gradually increase as September transitions to October.
And while no one wants to see drought conditions develop, one could look at the developing global patterns and also conclude that dry weather will dominate in our region through at least the early part of autumn. Lower humidity means those warmer-than-average fall days will be more tolerable. In fact, most everyone besides deer hunters (who are sick enough to embrace nose-numbing cold weather) would agree that temps in the 30s/70s are ideal for October and November.
STORMS AND RUMORS OF STORMS
One thing that will have to be watched for as these global weather patterns develop is severe weather. It’s been several years since our region has dealt with bonafide severe weather threats in the fall, but autumn is the Southeast’s secondary severe weather season for a reason. As the La Nina-typical pattern of warmth in the Southeast and cold in the Northwest takes hold, a perfect breeding ground for severe weather will develop on the periphery of the warmer air region as the cooler air begins to make its seasonal dives down through the Rockies and the Plains towards the Mississippi and Ohio river valleys.
Tropics are cranking
Sep 1st
As Hurricane Earl aims at the Carolinas and Tropical Storm Fiona travels in his wake, the seventh tropical storm of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season has formed back towards Africa.
Tropical Storm Gaston was born this evening. At this time yesterday, that storm system was given just a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression in 48 hours. But over the past 24 hours, it has exploded, and currently has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph and a minimum central pressure of 1005 mb.
How about this: after just three tropical cyclones in the Atlantic in the first two and a half months of hurricane season, there have been four in the past 11 days.
And don’t look now, but yet another tropical wave has peeled off the coast of Africa. It still looks as though Gaston might eventually take aim at the Caribbean. And, yes, most models show him becoming a hurricane.
Hurricane Earl aims for Carolinas; cooldown here
Aug 31st
Hurricane Earl is a category 4 storm with winds in excess of 135 mph, currently located several hundred miles north of Hispaniola and moving northwest…directly towards the Carolina beaches.
The good news is that Earl is expected to turn northeast before reaching shore. Almost every major model, and every ensemble member of the usually reliable GFS model, turns him to the east before landfall. But he’s going to be much too close to the Carolinas for comfort. The models have slowly but steadily moved him further west over time. And even if he does miss the Carolinas, he’s going to be close enough for some pretty serious issues. So while a direct hit appears unlikely, an indirect hit is likely. Serious storm surge is likely, and could be enough to cause some inland flooding. Wind could also be an issue; Earl knocked out power to 200,000 homes when he passed within 100 miles of Puerto Rico, and he was not as strong then as he is now.
Beyond the Carolinas, much of the East Coast is in the National Hurricane Center’s “cone of uncertainty.”
A little more good news is that the models suggest Earl has reached or will soon reach his peak intensity and will be already weakening by the time he reaches his closest point to the Carolinas. Better news still is that Earl should be out of the way along the Carolina beaches by the time holiday weekend visitors arrive at the end of the week. But will the beaches be visitable? Not if Earl gets too close, and not if he gets close enough for evacuations to be warranted.
Eventually, Earl is likely to make a direct strike on Nova Scotia, similar to Hurricane Juan in 2003. Models take him ashore in Canada as a cat1 hurricane around lunchtime Saturday.
TROPICAL STORM FIONA
Earl is eating Fiona for lunch. The weaker storm is having a very difficult time surviving against her big brother to her west and may soon lose her tropical storm status.
INVEST 98L
The next storm system in the Atlantic is still given just a 10% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours. The models are currently in much disagreement about where this storm will wind up, but the Caribbean looks like a pretty decent bet right now.
COOLDOWN
After last weekend’s model-projected cooldown didn’t pan out, one must wonder how much stock to put in the models this week. Because they’re doing it again…on an even more impressive scale.
The GFS’s model output statistics are printing some impressively cool numbers for the northern Plateau: 54 for a low Saturday morning, a high of 76 Saturday afternoon, a low of 48 Sunday morning, a high of 78 Sunday afternoon and a low of 49 Monday morning. Some raw numbers from the GFS are even more impressive, but there’s no point in even mentioning them because they’re unrealistic.
The GFS does have more support from other members of the global model community this time around, which is worth noting. But the National Weather Service isn’t yet biting, forecasting a low of 63 Saturday morning, a high of 83 Saturday afternoon, a low of 58 Sunday morning, a high of 85 Sunday afternoon and a low of 60 Monday morning.
By Sunday morning, our average low is 61 and our average high is 82. September as a whole looks like it will be warmer than average for our part of the world.
Tropics at the weekend
Aug 28th
The projected track for Tropical Storm Earl, which is expected to ultimately become a major hurricane, continues to inch further and further west. And while he’s still not expected to directly impact the U.S., he may get close enough to cause some fairly significant surf along the East Coast, particularly along the Carolinas. And the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico may not be fortunate enough to escape the wrath of Earl by late tomorrow night into Monday. Hurricane hunters are scheduled to fly into Earl tomorrow morning on a reconnaissance mission.
That last tropical wave to come out of the Cape Verde region, Invest 97, is still out there on the high seas. It’s currently given an 80% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours by the National Hurricane Center. It’s still too soon to say where this one winds up, but models do keep that ridge of high pressure along and off the East Coast, which should send this storm along a path similar to its predecessors. If any part of the U.S. is at risk from this storm, it will probably be the Northeast.
The wave train isn’t finished. Another tropical wave will emerge off the coast of Africa and begin its trek across the Atlantic within the next 4-6 days.
Hoppin’ tropics
Aug 27th
It’s a good thing Hurricane Danielle is going to stay well out at sea. She has exceeded expectations by strengthening to a category 4 hurricane overnight, with 135 mph sustained winds. Danielle is now headed very much to the north-northwest, and will soon turn back to the east without coming anywhere close to land.
She’s very photogenic this morning:
Earl is still a tropical storm, with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph. He’s slowly strengthening and is expected to become a weak hurricane by the end of the weekend, and a major hurricane by the middle of next week. By the time that happens, he should be safely away from most of the islands in and around the Caribbean and headed north well off the East Coast. But how long he takes to strengthen could potentially play a small role in whether he impacts any of the island nations. He’s expected to travel way too close to the Northern Antilles for comfort before he begins his jaunt to the northwest. There’s still a good model consensus keeping Earl away from land, but some take him closer to the islands than others.
That latest tropical wave to peel off the African coast is now on the National Hurricane Center’s radar. In fact, the NHC is giving it a 70% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone by the end of the weekend. It’s way too soon to know where this one, currently known as Invest 97L, will go, but it’s further south than either Danielle or Earl were at this stage of its trek across the Atlantic. That alone gives it a better chance of impacting the Caribbean or the U.S. However, early indications is that this one — which likely will wind up being a hurricane — will follow Danielle and Earl by remaining harmlessly out at sea.
Until high pressure currently centered just off the East Coast breaks down, this trend of storms staying harmlessly out at sea will continue. However, if the wave train continues off the African coast, it’s just a matter of time before that high pressure ridge breaks down and then the U.S./Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico could be in trouble from one of these storms.
TD7
Aug 25th
We have the seventh tropical depression of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. And that system is likely to begat Tropical Storm Earl before the day is out.
Meanwhile, Ms. Danielle is weaker than expected (though she has regained hurricane status and is strengthening today after being downgraded to a tropical storm yesterday). That means she’s drifted a little further west than was expected. That doesn’t necessarily mean anything for our friends in the Northeast; she’s still expected to be a fish storm. But the models are a lot more uncertain now than they were at one point. In fact, no fewer than three major models now have Danielle taking aim at the coast of North Carolina, though those models are admittedly the least reliable of the bunch. The GFS model still keeps the storm safely out to sea, but some of the ensemble members of the GFS are letting her drift a little too close to the Northeast coastline for comfort.
As for the storm that will become Earl: it’s still a long ways out on the seas, but it’s projected path is starting to creep closer to U.S. interests as well. Earl is expected to be a category 2 hurricane by Monday, passing safely north (but not by a huge margin) of the island nations of the eastern Caribbean. All the ensemble members of the GFS model say Earl will not be a threat to land. For now, the model consensus remains that Earl will follow Danielle back out to sea without being a nuisance to U.S. interests.
Meanwhile, the tropics continue to make fun of my post a few days ago that things would be quiet on the seas after Danielle completes her mischief…yet another tropical wave has peeled off the coast of Africa behind TD7 and could very well be Tropical Depression 8 by the end of the weekend. It’s a little further south than TD7, which is a little further south than Danielle. Position alone means it has a better chance of ultimately impacting the U.S. than either of the current storms.
Our transition to fall
After the cooler temps to end this week, which are completing a week that has already been quite mild, a warming trend into next week may be short lived. Some models are suggesting another cold front by the end of next week. And by the time that’s out of the way, we’ll be a week into September. It’s appearing more and more likely that our significant heat is finished for the year, although there are lots of indications that September will still be warmer than average.
Soon it will be time to start thinking about those annual winter predictions. I can tell you this: you aren’t going to like them if you’re a fan of winter weather.
Hurricane Danielle & her boyfriend
Aug 23rd
Hurricane Danielle has formed on the Atlantic high seas. And, no sooner than I posted that it might be a while before there’s another tropical cyclone after Danielle, there could be one right on her heels. Another tropical wave has rolled off the coast of Africa in the Cape Verde region and is being given a 60% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within 48 hours. (Earl will be the storm’s name if it actually develops.)
Danielle is expected to become a major hurricane briefly, probably by Wednesday. But it’s looking increasingly as if this will be a fish storm. The major models all suggest as much.
As for the other storm system, currently identified as Invest 96L, most models suggest that it will eventually become a hurricane, too. But it, too, looks like it could be a fish storm.
Weekend cooldown
The GFS computer model continues to be very bullish on this weekend’s continued cooldown. After a couple of runs backed off the idea of much cooler temperatures by the weekend, this afternoon’s model run came back stronger than ever with the idea. The 12z GFS says a low of 50 on Friday morning, and 54 on Saturday morning, with a high of 79 Thursday and 80 Friday before warming into the mid 80s on Saturday.
If that were to actually pan out, some outlying areas could drop to 48 or 49 degrees…which would be most unusual for late August. But it certainly wouldn’t be the first time it’s happened. The record low in Oneida on Aug. 27 is 49. But the record low for Aug. 29-31 is 42. And record lows in the mid 40s can be found as early as Aug. 3.
The GFS’s model output statistics, which take climatological data into account, has trended warmer for the weekend after it was trending towards the operational GFS yesterday. The GFS MOS currently says 62/81 for Thursday, 55/80 for Friday, and 58/83 for Saturday, and 58/84 for Sunday and Monday.
Tropical Depression Six
Aug 22nd
The sixth tropical depression of what has been an unusually quiet Atlantic hurricane season (so far; it’s expected to gain intensity as we head towards fall) has formed several hundred miles east of the Cape Verde Islands.
The National Hurricane Center doesn’t have much to say about TD6 in this morning’s discussion, as the storm is still well away from U.S. interests. But you can bet that all eyes will be on this storm as it develops over the next few days.
TD6 is expected to be a tropical storm by this afternoon and could be a hurricane by Wednesday. All the major models show the storm continuing to intensify as the week progresses, and it could ultimately become a major hurricane. (If a hurricane forms, it will be Hurricane Danielle, and will be the second hurricane of the 2010 hurricane season.)
That’s the bad news. The good news is that all the major models keep the storm away from the warmest waters of the western Atlantic, and the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico do not currently appear to be threatened by the storm.
It’s too soon to say, however, whether the East Coast will be threatened. Early indications are that the lower coast, from Florida to the Carolinas, won’t be in danger. However, this storm is going to take its time progressing through the high seas. By the end of this week it will still be well away from the U.S. mainland. It’ll be a while before this storm’s true intentions are known. This morning’s run of the GFS computer model shows it venturing way too close to the Big Apple for comfort by the first couple of days of September, but that’s too far out for the model to be of any use except for its entertainment value.
Eric Berger says that the storm “almost certainly” will not impact land. He’s probably right; there are plenty of indications that will be the case, and climatology suggests this one will probably be a fish storm (seen only by the fishes). But, frankly, it’s a little early to say for certain that Danielle-to-be won’t venture further west before beginning her northern turn into the mid-Atlantic, thereby bringing her closer to U.S. interests and the island nations.
Quiet hurricane season
Experts (NOAA and others) and know-nothings (this blog and lots of others) said a transition from El Nino to La Nina would result in an active hurricane season in the Atlantic. To date, that certainly hasn’t been the case. There have been only three named storms and one hurricane. We aren’t really too far away from the norm. Climatology says we’ll have four named storms by Aug. 23, and if TD 6 strengthens to a tropical storm today, we’ll be right on target for that.
And there’s still a ways to go. The peak of the hurricane season isn’t until Sept. 10, and many forecasters continue to predict that the hurricane season will gain intensity in the weeks ahead. Yet, in what is typically the second most intense month of the hurricane season (August; September is first), there have been no tropical cyclones for the last 13 days. And, if models are correct, it could be nearly that long before there is another, which would take us near the time period when hurricane activity is normally starting to wane.
With all of September and October yet to go, it’s too soon to say that this will wind up being anything less than a very active season. But should forecasters have backed off the heavy predictions when it became obvious that La Nina conditions were going to quickly gain strength?
Cooler weather
After finally seeing some cooler temps over the last few days, it’s only going to get better (after a couple of warmer days today and tomorrow). The latest output statistics from the GFS computer model suggest a high of 82 in Oneida Thursday, with a low of 58 Friday morning and a high of 81 Friday afternoon. Couple that with lower humidity than we’ve seen in a while and it’s going to be great weather. There’s no threat of rain this week, either, which is a good thing after last week’s flooding.
Is the GFS overdoing the cool-down? Perhaps. But the model output statistics, which are weighted by climatological norms, are actually modest compared to what the raw data from the operational model suggests. That raw data says a low of 56 Thursday morning, a high of 76 Thursday afternoon, a low of 52 Friday morning and a high of 83 Friday afternoon.
Those low temps are a little extreme. We’ll see if they pan out. Color me doubtful.
Flooding photos
Aug 18th
Flooding has become an issue in West Oneida this afternoon. While no evacuations have been required and so far no homes appear to have suffered damage, rising flood waters have threatened homes—in some cases coming right up to the door step—in the Pine Creek and Williams Creek areas. Numerous roads are flooded and the dam of one private lake was in danger of failing a little earlier. As much as a half foot of rain has fallen in the last 24 hours.
Flood waters encroach on the home of Paul Compton along Williams Creek Rd…
Side road underwater near off Williams Creek Rd…
Flood waters surround a home and outbuilding along Williams Creek Rd…
This doe and her youngin’ seemed oblivious to the pouring rain…
More flooding along Williams Creek Rd…
Flooding at the home of Jo Newport in Coopertown…
Flooding along Pine Creek…
A flooded daycare playground on O&W Road…
Latest on Friday night’s weather
Aug 17th
As rich moisture is pulled north from the Gulf of Mexico, the question remains: could the remnants of tropical depression #5 make for a wet opening night of high school football across Tennessee?
For now, model guidance actually shows Friday as being one of the drier days in what should be a rainy rest of the week. GFS text output suggests a 50% chance of rain Friday with an 80% chance of rain on Saturday. The National Weather Service in Morristown is still holding at a 40% chance of thunderstorms Friday.
The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center is indicating in excess of two inches of rain for much of Tennessee through early Sunday, and even more for the mountain region of East Tennessee:
But much of that will come tonight through tomorrow night. From 7 a.m. Friday through 7 a.m. Sunday, the HPC is predicting only about a half-inch of rain for our region:
The GFS does show a disturbance moving through Tennessee late Friday through Saturday that would enhance thunderstorm chances and rainfall totals. The question is whether that feature continues to exist on future model runs and what the timing will be.
